Results Week of Nov 28

Good week for the locks. UH paid off in spades as predicted. College rivalry games played closer than expected and hurt a bit. Pros were a coin toss.

Overall 9-11
College 4-5
Pros 6-6
Locks 4-1

Year to Date:
Overall: 84-99 (45.9%)
College: 43-49 (46.7%)
Pro: 42-50 (45.7%)
Locks: 20-16 (55.6%)

Locks
U Houston -29.5 YES
TX Tech -20.5 x
Tenn Vols -3 YES
Colts -3 YES
Vikes -10.5 YES

College
Ga Tech -7 x
LSU -3.5 YES
BYU -7.5 x
USC -13 YES
Ok St +10 x
BC -6 x

Pros
Cincy -14 x
Philly -9 x
Miami -3 x
Seattle -3 YES
Tampa +12 YES
Carolina +3 x
Jax +3 x
San Diego -13.5 YES
Pitts Even x
Saints -3 YES

Give Thanks

Looks like some very winnable games this week. Thanksgiving Day games were easy pickins, but I didn't get me post up in time. UH might be the best bet of the year pitting its stellar offense against an absolutely horrid Rice team that gives up 40 points a game.

Locks
U Houston -29.5
TX Tech -20.5
Tenn Vols -3
Colts -3
Vikes -10.5

College
Ga Tech -7
LSU -3.5
BYU -7.5
USC -13
Ok St +10
BC -6


Pros
Cincy -14
Philly -9
Miami -3
Seattle -3
Tampa +12
Carolina +3
Jax +3
San Diego -13.5
Pitts Even
Saints -3

Results Week of NOV 21

Watch 'em burn. Not a horrific week, but poor lock picks. The Dogs continue to do some damage.

Overall 13-14
College 7-6
Pros 6-8
Locks 1-4

Year to Date:
Overall: 75-88 (46.0%)
College: 39-44 (47.0%)
Pro: 36-44 (45.0%)
Locks: 16-15 (51.6%)

Locks
5 Oklahoma St -16.5 x
4 Carolina -3 x
3 LSU +3.5 YES
2 Georgia -8.5 x
1 Cowboys -11 x

College
Ohio State –12½ x
Oklahoma –6½ x
Wyoming +31.5 x
BYU –10½ YES
California +7.5 YES
Texas –26½ YES
Penn State –3½ YES
Notre Dame –6½ x
Florida –43½ YES
Maryland +19.5 YES

Pros
Jax -8.5 x
Pitt -10.5 x
Indy +1.5 YES
Minn -10.5 YES
NYG -5.5 x
NO -11.5 YES
Detroit -4.5 x
GB -4.5 YES
St Louis +9.5 YES
Cincy -9.5 x
Jets +10.5 x
Philly -4.5 x
Tenn +4.5 YES

Triage

In an attempt to stop the bleeding, I'm going back to the basics. Trust my instincts, don't fall in love with trends, remember parity, etc. Here goes.

Locks
5 Oklahoma St -16.5
4 Carolina -3
3 LSU +3.5
2 Georgia -8.5
1 Cowboys -11

College
Ohio State –12½
Oklahoma –6½
Wyoming +31.5
BYU –10½
California +7.5
Texas –26½
Penn State –3½
Notre Dame –6½
Florida –43½
Maryland +19.5

Pros
Jax -8.5
Pitt -10.5
Indy +1.5
Minn -10.5
NYG -5.5
NO -11.5
Detroit -4.5
GB -4.5
St Louis +9.5
Cincy -9.5
Jets +10.5
Philly -4.5
Tenn +4.5

RESULTS Week of Nov 14

What can I say? Another beating at the hands of the underdogs. Obviously, I (like many prognosticators) fell in love with the favorites after the early season domination. Now we see what happens eventually every year: parity strikes in the pros and college powers start to wear down or take weeks off against weak teams. As an example, the NFL's last 3 winless teams (Titans, Bucs, Rams) have gone 5-4 the last 3 weeks while the previously unbeaten Broncos and 5-1 Giants have each dropped 3 in a row. Parity strikes. Even the top-tier Saints and Colts have not covered each of the last 2 weeks.

I'm particularly upset with my first losing week in locks. Cincy screwed me and set the tone for the entire weekend by going to the prevent and letting WV get a late, meaningless touchdown. I completely whiffed on Denver.

p.s. - Remind me NEVER to pick the Aggies again. What a bunch of losers.

Overall 11-17
College 5-8
Pros 6-9
Locks 2-3

Year to Date:
Overall: 62-74 (45.6%)
College: 32-38 (45.7%)
Pro: 30-36 (45.5%)
Locks: 15-11 (57.7%)

Locks
U Cincy -9 x
Denver -3.5 x
AZ State +17 x
Iowa +16.5 YES
Nebraska -3.5 YES

Other College
UH -5.5 x
UT -24.5 YES
Idaho +28.5 x
Oregon State -12.5 YES
Florida -16.5 x
Texas A&M +19.5 x
AZ even x
Pitt -6.5 x
Bama -12.5 YES

Pros
Saints -14.5 x
Jets -6.5 x
Atlanta -1.5 x
TN -6.5 YES
Minn -16.5 YES
Pittsburgh -6.5 x
Miami -10.5 x
Denver -3.5 x
KC +2.5 YES
Seattle +8.5 x
Dallas -3.5 x
San Diego -2.5 YES
NE +2.5 YES
Balt -10.5 YES

Back on Track

This week looks much more winnable, and I'm primed to take advantage. Several good college games have decent/good teams as dogs and there are a few pro games I like, too. Denver is a lock to bounce back against a bad Redskins team after a solid beating at the hands of the Steelers (last weeks 5 star lock). I can't see how Ohio St. is a 16+ point favorite over last week's undefeated Hawkeyes (even without the starting QB and RB). I think the hawkeye D will keep it close. I believe Cincy will establish itself as a real contender at home against a good but vulnerable WV team. 9 is a lot to give, but I think they'll win by 10.

Locks
U Cincy -9
Denver -3.5
AZ State +17
Iowa +16.5
Nebraska -3.5

Other College
UH -5.5
UT -24.5
Idaho +28.5
Oregaon State -12.5
Florida -16.5
Texas A&M +19.5
AZ even
Pitt -6.5
Bama -12.5

Pros
Saints -14.5
Jets -6.5
Atlanta -1.5
TN -6.5
Minn -16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
Miami -10.5
Denver -3.5
KC +2.5
Seattle +8.5
Dallas -3.5
San Diego -2.5
NE +2.5
Balt -10.5

Results Week of November 7

Maybe I should retire... Another hideous week, but it makes for important lessons learned. Even in a year of clear haves and have nots, the favorites cannot continue to cover. Vegas would have gone out of business years ago. The trick is to decide when the dogs rise up. This was the week! In the college games I picked, dogs were 10-3. In the pros, 9-3. What a week to bet the dogs!

On a positive note, everything I noted in my comments came to fruition, and my locks were respectable .500. Year-to-date, my locks are still hitting at a pretty good clip and I have not had a sub .500 week in that category. Until next week!

This Week

Overall: 8-17
College: 2-11
Pros: 6-6
Locks: 3-3

Year to Date:
Overall: 51-57 (47.2%)
College: 27-30 (47.4%)
Pro: 24-27 (47.1%)
Locks: 13-8 (61.9%)

Locks
Alabama -8.5 YES
Steelers -3 YES
Cowboys +3 YES
U Minn -6.5 X
Oklahoma -5.5 X
Green Bay -10 X

Other College
Central FL +36.5 YES
Virginia +13.5 x
Iowa -16.5 X
KU -2.5 X
BYU -13.5 X
Oregon -6.5 X
Penn State -3.5 X
Florida -34.5 X
Florida St +8.5 X
Cincy -16.5 X

Pros
New England -10.5 X
Jacksonville -6.5 X
Baltimore -3.5 X
Chicago -3.5 X
Atlanta -10.5 YES
New Orleans -13.5 X
Seattle -10.5 YES
Tennessee +4.5 YES
San Diego +4.5 YES

Straight Up

I like this week better than last (no doubt), but I still don't have a strong sense. I like Alabama to pound LSU and Pittsburgh to expose Denver (like Baltimore did last week). Many of the pro lines are large enough to scare you, but I still like the favorites. Some tough college picks this week too. I expect Texas/Central FL to be right at the line, and I'm leaning toward UCF just coming in under.


Locks
Alabama -8.5
Steelers -3
Cowboys +3
U Minn -6.5
Oklahoma -5.5
Green Bay -10

Other College
Central FL +36.5
Virginia +13.5
Iowa -16.5
KU -2.5
BYU -13.5
Oregon -6.5
Penn State -3.5
Alabama -8.5
Florida -34.5
Florida St +8.5
Cincy -16.5

Pros
New England -10.5
Jacksonville -6.5
Baltimore -3.5
Chicago -3.5
Atlanta -10.5
New Orleans -13.5
Seattle -10.5
Tennessee +4.5
San Diego +4.5

Results Week of Oct 31

Ouch! This is one week you just want to tear up and throw away. At least, I admitted up front that I didn't have a good sense of the games this week. And remember, there is an exception to every rule (especially the 2 I mentioned in my post).

This week:
Overall: 9-18
College 6-9
Pros 3-9
Locks 3-2

Year to Date:
Overall: 43-40 (51.8%)
College: 25-19 (56.8%)
Pro: 18-21 (46.2%)
Locks: 10-5 (66.7%)

Honestly, very few lines are jumping out at me this week. That means it's a tough week to pick. When that's the case, I usually play by a few general rules:
1) When bad teams collide, take the points.
2) Play the best teams against bad teams until they prove you wrong.

Rule #1 applies to games like Iowa St and Texas A&M and the pro Tennessee vs. Jacksonville game. Rule #2 applies to OU, Colts, Chargers, and Saints. Sometimes you just have to play the odds.

Locks
Oregon St -10
Iowa -17.5 YES
Wisc -6.5 YES
AZ ST +6.5 YES
Michigan -7

Other College
Rutgers +7.5 YES
FSU -8.5
Iowa St +6.5
Georgia +15.5
ND -29.5
USC -4.5
Texas -9.5 YES
OU -26.5
Miami -7.5
Boise St -34.5 YES

Pros
Houston -3.5 YES
Miami +4.5 YES
Indy -11.5
Dallas -9.5 YES
Cleveland +13.5
Denver + 3.5
NY Giants Even
San Diego -16.5
Jacksonville +3.5
Arizona -9.5
GB -3.5
NO -9/5