Results Week of Dec. 12

This week:
Overall 9-6
Pros 9-6
Locks 3-2

Year to Date:
Overall: 106-118 (47.3%)
College: 48-53 (47.5%)
Pro: 58-65 (47.2%)
Locks: 25-21 (54.3%)

Locks

AZ -3 x
GB -3 YES
Oak +1 x
Indy -7 YES
Bills even YES

Others
NO -10.5 x
Miami +3.5 YES
Jets -3.5 YES
Houston -6.5 YES
Baltimore -13.5 YES
Cincinnati +6.5 x
New England -13.5 x
St. Louis +12.5 x
San Diego +2.5 YES
Philly even YES

Time for the Pros

Down to the pros. They've hurt me all season, but there are a few games I really like this weekend. Cardinals and Packers are solid bets to cover against bad teams.

Locks

AZ -3
GB -3
Oak +1
Indy -7
Bills even

Others
NO -10.5
Miami +3.5
Jets -3.5
Houston -6.5
Baltimore -13.5
Cincinnati +6.5
New England -13.5
St. Louis +12.5
San Diego +2.5
Philly even

RESULTS Week of Dec. 5

A very average week. I just can't get a handle on the pros--my 6th non-winning week in a row. A disappointing week for locks, too. Why do I ever pick the Cowboys?

Overall 12-13
College 5-4
Pros 7-9
Locks 2-3

Year to Date:
Overall: 97-112 (46.4%)
College: 48-53 (47.5%)
Pro: 49-59 (45.4%)
Locks: 22-19 (53.7%)

Locks
U Houston -2.5 x
Ga Tech Even YES
USC -7 x
Dallas -2.5 x
Denver -4.5 YES

Other College
Oregon St. +9.5 YES
Washington +7 YES
Cincinatti -2 x
Wisconsin -12 YES
Bama +5.5 YES
Texas -14 x

Pros
Buffalo +3 x
Oakland +14.5 YES
Houston E x
Tennessee +6.5 x
Philly -5.5 YES
Cincy -13 x
NO -9.5 x
Carolina -6.5 YES
St. Louis +9 YES
San Diego -13 x
Seattle E YES
Minn -5 x
New England -6 x
Green Bay -3 YES

Crunch Time

It's getting to a tough point in the season. College is down to the Conference Championships, which generally involve 2 pretty good teams, and a few oddballs. In the pros, teams are fighting for the playoffs. I like to give the edge to those teams who really need a win for the playoffs. Also, I think games play a bit closer this time of year, so I lean a bit more toward the dogs. For locks, I'm riding Houston while they're hot.

Locks
U Houston -2.5
Ga Tech Even
USC -7
Dallas -2.5
Denver -4.5

Other College
Oregon St. +9.5
Washington +7
Cincinatti -2
Wisconsin -12
Bama +5.5
Texas -14

Pros
Buffalo +3
Oakland +14.5
Houston E
Tennessee +6.5
Philly -5.5
Cincy -13
NO -9.5
Carolina -6.5
St. Louis +9
San Diego -13
Seattle E
Minn -5
New England -6
Green Bay -3

Results Week of Nov 28

Good week for the locks. UH paid off in spades as predicted. College rivalry games played closer than expected and hurt a bit. Pros were a coin toss.

Overall 9-11
College 4-5
Pros 6-6
Locks 4-1

Year to Date:
Overall: 84-99 (45.9%)
College: 43-49 (46.7%)
Pro: 42-50 (45.7%)
Locks: 20-16 (55.6%)

Locks
U Houston -29.5 YES
TX Tech -20.5 x
Tenn Vols -3 YES
Colts -3 YES
Vikes -10.5 YES

College
Ga Tech -7 x
LSU -3.5 YES
BYU -7.5 x
USC -13 YES
Ok St +10 x
BC -6 x

Pros
Cincy -14 x
Philly -9 x
Miami -3 x
Seattle -3 YES
Tampa +12 YES
Carolina +3 x
Jax +3 x
San Diego -13.5 YES
Pitts Even x
Saints -3 YES

Give Thanks

Looks like some very winnable games this week. Thanksgiving Day games were easy pickins, but I didn't get me post up in time. UH might be the best bet of the year pitting its stellar offense against an absolutely horrid Rice team that gives up 40 points a game.

Locks
U Houston -29.5
TX Tech -20.5
Tenn Vols -3
Colts -3
Vikes -10.5

College
Ga Tech -7
LSU -3.5
BYU -7.5
USC -13
Ok St +10
BC -6


Pros
Cincy -14
Philly -9
Miami -3
Seattle -3
Tampa +12
Carolina +3
Jax +3
San Diego -13.5
Pitts Even
Saints -3

Results Week of NOV 21

Watch 'em burn. Not a horrific week, but poor lock picks. The Dogs continue to do some damage.

Overall 13-14
College 7-6
Pros 6-8
Locks 1-4

Year to Date:
Overall: 75-88 (46.0%)
College: 39-44 (47.0%)
Pro: 36-44 (45.0%)
Locks: 16-15 (51.6%)

Locks
5 Oklahoma St -16.5 x
4 Carolina -3 x
3 LSU +3.5 YES
2 Georgia -8.5 x
1 Cowboys -11 x

College
Ohio State –12½ x
Oklahoma –6½ x
Wyoming +31.5 x
BYU –10½ YES
California +7.5 YES
Texas –26½ YES
Penn State –3½ YES
Notre Dame –6½ x
Florida –43½ YES
Maryland +19.5 YES

Pros
Jax -8.5 x
Pitt -10.5 x
Indy +1.5 YES
Minn -10.5 YES
NYG -5.5 x
NO -11.5 YES
Detroit -4.5 x
GB -4.5 YES
St Louis +9.5 YES
Cincy -9.5 x
Jets +10.5 x
Philly -4.5 x
Tenn +4.5 YES

Triage

In an attempt to stop the bleeding, I'm going back to the basics. Trust my instincts, don't fall in love with trends, remember parity, etc. Here goes.

Locks
5 Oklahoma St -16.5
4 Carolina -3
3 LSU +3.5
2 Georgia -8.5
1 Cowboys -11

College
Ohio State –12½
Oklahoma –6½
Wyoming +31.5
BYU –10½
California +7.5
Texas –26½
Penn State –3½
Notre Dame –6½
Florida –43½
Maryland +19.5

Pros
Jax -8.5
Pitt -10.5
Indy +1.5
Minn -10.5
NYG -5.5
NO -11.5
Detroit -4.5
GB -4.5
St Louis +9.5
Cincy -9.5
Jets +10.5
Philly -4.5
Tenn +4.5

RESULTS Week of Nov 14

What can I say? Another beating at the hands of the underdogs. Obviously, I (like many prognosticators) fell in love with the favorites after the early season domination. Now we see what happens eventually every year: parity strikes in the pros and college powers start to wear down or take weeks off against weak teams. As an example, the NFL's last 3 winless teams (Titans, Bucs, Rams) have gone 5-4 the last 3 weeks while the previously unbeaten Broncos and 5-1 Giants have each dropped 3 in a row. Parity strikes. Even the top-tier Saints and Colts have not covered each of the last 2 weeks.

I'm particularly upset with my first losing week in locks. Cincy screwed me and set the tone for the entire weekend by going to the prevent and letting WV get a late, meaningless touchdown. I completely whiffed on Denver.

p.s. - Remind me NEVER to pick the Aggies again. What a bunch of losers.

Overall 11-17
College 5-8
Pros 6-9
Locks 2-3

Year to Date:
Overall: 62-74 (45.6%)
College: 32-38 (45.7%)
Pro: 30-36 (45.5%)
Locks: 15-11 (57.7%)

Locks
U Cincy -9 x
Denver -3.5 x
AZ State +17 x
Iowa +16.5 YES
Nebraska -3.5 YES

Other College
UH -5.5 x
UT -24.5 YES
Idaho +28.5 x
Oregon State -12.5 YES
Florida -16.5 x
Texas A&M +19.5 x
AZ even x
Pitt -6.5 x
Bama -12.5 YES

Pros
Saints -14.5 x
Jets -6.5 x
Atlanta -1.5 x
TN -6.5 YES
Minn -16.5 YES
Pittsburgh -6.5 x
Miami -10.5 x
Denver -3.5 x
KC +2.5 YES
Seattle +8.5 x
Dallas -3.5 x
San Diego -2.5 YES
NE +2.5 YES
Balt -10.5 YES

Back on Track

This week looks much more winnable, and I'm primed to take advantage. Several good college games have decent/good teams as dogs and there are a few pro games I like, too. Denver is a lock to bounce back against a bad Redskins team after a solid beating at the hands of the Steelers (last weeks 5 star lock). I can't see how Ohio St. is a 16+ point favorite over last week's undefeated Hawkeyes (even without the starting QB and RB). I think the hawkeye D will keep it close. I believe Cincy will establish itself as a real contender at home against a good but vulnerable WV team. 9 is a lot to give, but I think they'll win by 10.

Locks
U Cincy -9
Denver -3.5
AZ State +17
Iowa +16.5
Nebraska -3.5

Other College
UH -5.5
UT -24.5
Idaho +28.5
Oregaon State -12.5
Florida -16.5
Texas A&M +19.5
AZ even
Pitt -6.5
Bama -12.5

Pros
Saints -14.5
Jets -6.5
Atlanta -1.5
TN -6.5
Minn -16.5
Pittsburgh -6.5
Miami -10.5
Denver -3.5
KC +2.5
Seattle +8.5
Dallas -3.5
San Diego -2.5
NE +2.5
Balt -10.5

Results Week of November 7

Maybe I should retire... Another hideous week, but it makes for important lessons learned. Even in a year of clear haves and have nots, the favorites cannot continue to cover. Vegas would have gone out of business years ago. The trick is to decide when the dogs rise up. This was the week! In the college games I picked, dogs were 10-3. In the pros, 9-3. What a week to bet the dogs!

On a positive note, everything I noted in my comments came to fruition, and my locks were respectable .500. Year-to-date, my locks are still hitting at a pretty good clip and I have not had a sub .500 week in that category. Until next week!

This Week

Overall: 8-17
College: 2-11
Pros: 6-6
Locks: 3-3

Year to Date:
Overall: 51-57 (47.2%)
College: 27-30 (47.4%)
Pro: 24-27 (47.1%)
Locks: 13-8 (61.9%)

Locks
Alabama -8.5 YES
Steelers -3 YES
Cowboys +3 YES
U Minn -6.5 X
Oklahoma -5.5 X
Green Bay -10 X

Other College
Central FL +36.5 YES
Virginia +13.5 x
Iowa -16.5 X
KU -2.5 X
BYU -13.5 X
Oregon -6.5 X
Penn State -3.5 X
Florida -34.5 X
Florida St +8.5 X
Cincy -16.5 X

Pros
New England -10.5 X
Jacksonville -6.5 X
Baltimore -3.5 X
Chicago -3.5 X
Atlanta -10.5 YES
New Orleans -13.5 X
Seattle -10.5 YES
Tennessee +4.5 YES
San Diego +4.5 YES

Straight Up

I like this week better than last (no doubt), but I still don't have a strong sense. I like Alabama to pound LSU and Pittsburgh to expose Denver (like Baltimore did last week). Many of the pro lines are large enough to scare you, but I still like the favorites. Some tough college picks this week too. I expect Texas/Central FL to be right at the line, and I'm leaning toward UCF just coming in under.


Locks
Alabama -8.5
Steelers -3
Cowboys +3
U Minn -6.5
Oklahoma -5.5
Green Bay -10

Other College
Central FL +36.5
Virginia +13.5
Iowa -16.5
KU -2.5
BYU -13.5
Oregon -6.5
Penn State -3.5
Alabama -8.5
Florida -34.5
Florida St +8.5
Cincy -16.5

Pros
New England -10.5
Jacksonville -6.5
Baltimore -3.5
Chicago -3.5
Atlanta -10.5
New Orleans -13.5
Seattle -10.5
Tennessee +4.5
San Diego +4.5

Results Week of Oct 31

Ouch! This is one week you just want to tear up and throw away. At least, I admitted up front that I didn't have a good sense of the games this week. And remember, there is an exception to every rule (especially the 2 I mentioned in my post).

This week:
Overall: 9-18
College 6-9
Pros 3-9
Locks 3-2

Year to Date:
Overall: 43-40 (51.8%)
College: 25-19 (56.8%)
Pro: 18-21 (46.2%)
Locks: 10-5 (66.7%)

Honestly, very few lines are jumping out at me this week. That means it's a tough week to pick. When that's the case, I usually play by a few general rules:
1) When bad teams collide, take the points.
2) Play the best teams against bad teams until they prove you wrong.

Rule #1 applies to games like Iowa St and Texas A&M and the pro Tennessee vs. Jacksonville game. Rule #2 applies to OU, Colts, Chargers, and Saints. Sometimes you just have to play the odds.

Locks
Oregon St -10
Iowa -17.5 YES
Wisc -6.5 YES
AZ ST +6.5 YES
Michigan -7

Other College
Rutgers +7.5 YES
FSU -8.5
Iowa St +6.5
Georgia +15.5
ND -29.5
USC -4.5
Texas -9.5 YES
OU -26.5
Miami -7.5
Boise St -34.5 YES

Pros
Houston -3.5 YES
Miami +4.5 YES
Indy -11.5
Dallas -9.5 YES
Cleveland +13.5
Denver + 3.5
NY Giants Even
San Diego -16.5
Jacksonville +3.5
Arizona -9.5
GB -3.5
NO -9/5

Tough Week - Play by the Rules

Honestly, very few lines are jumping out at me this week. That means it's a tough week to pick. When that's the case, I usually play by a few general rules:
1) When bad teams collide, take the points.
2) Play the best teams against bad teams until they prove you wrong.

Rule #1 applies to games like Iowa St and Texas A&M and the pro Tennessee vs. Jacksonville game. Rule #2 applies to OU, Colts, Chargers, and Saints. Sometimes you just have to play the odds.

Locks
Oregon St -10
Iowa -17.5
Wisc -6.5
AZ ST +6.5
Michigan -7

Other College
Rutgers +7.5
FSU -8.5
Iowa St +6.5
Georgia +15.5
ND -29.5
USC -4.5
Texas -9.5
OU -26.5
Miami -7.5
Boise St -34.5

Pros
Houston -3.5
Miami +4.5
Indy -11.5
Dallas -9.5
Cleveland +13.5
Denver + 3.5
NY Giants Even
San Diego -16.5
Jacksonville +3.5
Arizona -9.5
GB -3.5
NO -9/5

Results Week of Oct 24

A great week in college with most of my called shots coming in (AL and FL not covering, TX covering). A lackluster week in the pros. I should have followed my own advice more closely: Favorites were 10-3. As predicted, St. Louis, KC, and Tampa got whipped. My mistake was picking a couple of dogs (Vikings and Raiders--what was I thinking?).


This Week:
Overall 19-10 (65.5%)
Locks 3-2 (60.0%)
Asterisks 4-1 (80.0%)
College 12-4 (75.0%)
Pro 7-6 (53.8%)

Year to Date:
Overall: 34-22 (60.7%)
College: 19-10 (65.5%)
Pro: 15-12 (55.6%)
Locks: 7-3 (70.0%)

Locks
5 Arizona (U of) -8.5 YES
4 Miami (the U) -6
3 New Orleans -6.5 YES
2 South Carolina -12.5
1 Green Bay -7 YES


Other College
Marshall -7.5 YES
Ohio State -18.5 YES
Cincinatti -17.5* YES
Michigan +4.5
Tennessee +15.5 YES
Wash State +35.5 YES
Texas Tech -21.5*
TCU -1.5 YES
LSU -7.5 YES
Miss State +22.5 YES
Texas -13.5 YES
Oregon St +20.5 YES
Okla St -10* YES

Pro
San Diego -5.5 YES
Indy -13.5 YES
Minnesota +4.5
New England -15.5* YES
Houston -3.5
Carolina -7.5
Oakland +6.5
Atlanta +3.5
Cincy -1.5 YES
NY Giants -7.5
Philly -7.5* YES

Time For A New Pony

Picks for the Week of Oct 24

There are about 10 games I like a lot this week, the locks and the runners up indicated by asterisks. Otherwise there are some tough picks. I have a feeling this is the week to change some of those horses you've been riding all season, so I'm picking against the Tide in a tough test with an improving Tennessee team and against the Gators who've really been lackluster lately. Texas is a question mark too, but with Mizzou's QB questions, they should cover 2 TDs.

In the pros, the big dogs will come barking this week. Poor St. Louis, Washington, KC, and especially Tampa Bay traveling to London. Sorry kids. Underdogs I like are Minnesota and the scrappy Raiders at home.

Locks
5 Arizona (U of) -8.5
4 Miami (the U) -6
3 New Orleans -6.5
2 South Carolina -12.5
1 Green Bay -7


Other College
Marshall -7.5
Ohio State -18.5
Cincinatti -17.5*
Michigan +4.5
Tennessee +15.5
Wash State +35.5
Texas Tech -21.5*
TCU -1.5
LSU -7.5
Miss State +22.5
Texas -13.5
Oregon St +20.5
Okla St -10*

Pro
San Diego -5.5
Indy -13.5
Minnesota +4.5
New England -15.5*
Houston -3.5
Carolina -7.5
Oakland +6.5
Atlanta +3.5
Cincy -1.5
NY Giants -7.5
Philly -7.5*

October 17 RESULTS

Well, it was a strong week for the locks although I dropped the 5-star thanks to a pathetic showing by the Buckeyes. Just nipped .500 in both college and pros. I knew some NFL parity would show up and dogs would rule the day: KC, Cleveland, St. Louis, Oakland, and Buffalo all covered despite being big underdogs and 3 of them won outright.

This week:
Overall: 15-12 (55.6%)
College: 7-6 (53.8%)
Pro: 8-6 (57.0%)
Locks: 4-1 (80.0%)

Year to Date:
Overall: 15-12 (55.6%)
College: 7-6 (53.8%)
Pro: 8-6 (57.0%)
Locks: 4-1 (80.0%)

Locks
Ohio St -13
Georgia -7 YES
BC -2.5 YES
Tech +10 YES
OK St -7 YES

Other college games
UT -3.5
USC -10.5
Arkansas +24.5 YES
Idaho -9.5 YES
AZ St -6.5 YES
Auburn -13.5
CFU +14.5
Alabama -17.5

Pros
KC +6.5 YES
NO -3.5 YES
Carolina -3.5 YES
Cincy -5.5
Balt +3.5 YES
Pitt -14.5
Stl +10.5 YES
Detroit +14.5
Phil -14.5
AZ +3.5 YES
NE -9.5 YES
NYJ -10.5
Atlanta -3.5 YES
SD -3.5

DOG DAY AFTERNOON

Picks Weekend of October 17
Ohio State is a 5-star gold lock. They will easily punish Purdue by 2 TDs. Bet the Farm.

In the NFL, watch for those NFL dogs to bite this weekend. Too many big lines; parity will rear its ugly head sooner or later. The trick is picking which ones!

Locks
Ohio St -13
Georgia -7
BC -2.5
Tech +10
OK St -7

Other college games
UT -3.5
USC -10.5
Arkansas +24.5
Idaho -9.5
AZ St -6.5
Auburn -13.5
CFU +14.5
Alabama -17.5

Pros
KC +6.5
NO -3.5
Carolina -3.5
Cincy -5.5
Balt +3.5
Pitt -14.5
Stl +10.5
Detroit +14.5
Phil -14.5
AZ +3.5
NE -9.5
NYJ -10.5
Atlanta -3.5
SD -3.5